Italian Club's UCL Draw Analysis

UCL 2018-19 Group Stage

The Champions League group stages have been arranged and I can’t be more excited to see the upcoming matches. What stood out to me the most was the level of difficulty Italian clubs were seeded into. In this post, I will go over each group that involves an Italian club and where I see them standing when the group stage is over.

Starting of with Group B consisting of:

• Barcelona

• Tottenham

• PSV

• Inter Milan

Barcelona

Barcelona will be doing everything they can to overshadow their stunning defeat to Roma in last years quarter final match up. On paper, and in real life it doesn’t take much football knowledge to know Barca is an absolute powerhouse in world soccer. Despite losing Iniesta this summer, they have reinforced their squad with the likes of Malcom, Lenglet, Arthur and Vidal. With the amount of depth that they have, I see them easily topping their group.

Predicted finish: 1st

Tottenham

Tottenham had arguably one of the most interesting transfer windows. They signed absolutely nobody important. With a lot of super teams nowadays, depth is very important and I don’t see them going far in the UCL or PL if they lose a star player due to injury. Nonetheless, assuming they avoid major injuries to their starting XI, they are a really dangerous group going forward. Let’s not forget they barely missed out on reaching the quarter finals having lost to Juve in a matter of a few spectacular minutes. With the amount of talent on hand, I see them finishing second in their group. I’m not sure if they will be able to win against Barca, but they should definitely get some points when playing PSV & Inter.

Predicted finish: 2nd

PSV

The reigning Eredivisie champions are in my opinion the underdogs in this group. They don’t have the budget, the star players or the depth compared to the three other teams in this group. Although, by no means should you brush them off as an easy team to beat. From what I’ve seen, they are a stubborn team with the ability to go all out in search for a goal. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get an upset win or two in this group stage. One player to look out for is Mexican talisman Hirving “Chucky” Lozano. Last year he had 17 goals with 8 assists total in 29 appearances in the Eredivisie. Already into this Champions League season he has 2 goals in two matches and has proven to be a consistent goal scorer for PSV. Unfortunately, I don’t see them being able to get into the top two due to the difficulty of this draw but it will be interesting to watch them

Predicted finish: 4th

Inter Milan

As a Juve fan, it hurts to say this but I have to give credit where it’s due. Inter had one of the best transfer windows in Europe. They reinforced their defence by bringing in Asamoah & de Vrij on free transfers and Vrsaljko on loan from Atleti. They also brought in the ageing but capable Nainggolan to add that big presence in midfield. And lastly signed immensely promising talent in the likes of Lautaro Martinez and Keita Balde. Overall, they have a really promising team. Although, if their current Serie A form is anything to go by having lost a game and tied the other, they might be in trouble. I believe they will get the minimum required points to end up in third place behind Tottenham.

Predicted finish: 3rd

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Next up we have Group C:

• PSG

• Liverpool

• Crvena Zvezda

• Napoli

PSG

My god is this one of the most interesting groups this year. As we all know, PSG seem to have unlimited funds only limited by FFP. They have arguably the most dangerous front three in superstar Neymar, wonderkid Mbappe and “El Matador” Cavani. Their starting XI is very strong and their bench isn’t very behind. Not to mention they signed Legendary Juventus goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to protect the net. They have all the necessary pieces to go far into this years UCL with the only downside being not having enough experience collectively as a team. We’ll just have to see.

Predicted finish: 2nd

Liverpool

Some of you might be surprised to see I put PSG in second place. Let’s not forget about last year’s finalist Liverpool which had an absolutely stunning season. We’ll never know what might have happened if Salah didn’t exit the game due to injury but they’ll have to start the journey all over again. Apart from PSG, Liverpool also have one of the most dynamic front three in Salah, Mane and Firmino. Last year I felt like they lacked strong bench players. In this summer's transfer window, they definitely covered positions where they needed reinforcements. They brought in one of the most sought after upcoming midfielders in Naby Keita and also signed Fabinho. Xherdan Shaqiri was also brought in as backup to any of their front three which was a decent purchase. Lastly, my favorite Liverpool signing was Brazilian goalkeeper Allison from Roma in a momentary record transfer fee for a GK. I think the GK position is the most important position in football, without a great one it will be hard to progress in any tournament. If an attacker loses the ball, they have the midfielders to recover. If the midfielders lose the ball, the defense can recover. If you see where I’m going with this, it’s obvious that there’s nobody to backup the goalkeeper. With a team this strong, I see them topping their group and going very far in the UCL. Maybe even reach the final again.

Predicted finish: 1st

Crvena Zvezda

I’m going to be completely honest. I have never heard of Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade) besides them being a team from Serbia. I’m going to assume they will struggle to their own against any of the three other teams in this group. Nonetheless, I like success stories so I’ll be cheering for them to get some positive results in this group. Maybe even make some history!

Predicted finish: 4th

Napoli

Lastly we have Napoli, the team that gave Juve a run for our money in last years Scudetto race. The most important thing that Napoli did this summer was hold on to most of their most important players. Losing Jorginho was a big loss since he was able to control the pitch almost single handedly. As we have seen him in his first few games with Chelsea, absolutely a game changer. Losing Sarri with his magnificent style of play also hurt but they managed to hire Legendary coach Carlo Ancelotti which will surely bring Napoli positive outcomes. I feel like they will end up in third place behind PSG or Liverpool. Although I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Ancelotti figured out how to come through with some upsets.

Predicted finish: 3rd.

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Next up we have Group G:

• Real Madrid

• CSKA Moscow

• Plzen

• Roma

Real Madrid

This is the easiest group out of all four mentioned above in my opinion. The top two in Madrid & Roma is pretty evident. Having won 4 UCL finals in 5 years, Real is still one of the clubs predicted to win it again this year despite losing Ronaldo. It’ll be interesting to see how they manage against the opposition with arguably the best and most consistent goal-scorer in the UCL having left. Ronaldo aside, they still have one of the better sides in Europe and I know better than to count out the reigning champions. I’m more than confident that they will top their group without much of sweat.

Predicted finish: 1st

CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow has been performing pretty badly in their first five league games having only won once, drawing three and losing one. The Russian Premier League is nowhere near the level of competition in the UCL. So unless they figure something out, they might have a very disappointing run. It doesn’t help that they lost their most promising prospect in Aleksandr Golovin to Monaco that seemed to make it all click last season.

Predicted finish: 3rd

Plzen

Plzen is currently undefeated in the Czech First League having won 6 in a row. They have also only conceded 2 goals in this time frame. If they can somehow replicate this success in the UCL, they might be able to make some interesting competition. Ultimately, I think their opposition in this group is very further ahead than them but let’s hope they can at least prove to be fun to watch.

Predicted finish: 4th

Roma

Roma made headlines last year for knocking out Barcelona in the quarter finals. A lot of eyes will be on them this year to see if they can hold their own again. Roma is an interesting team at the moment. They lost a lot of their most important players like Strootman, Nainggolan and Allison. In the transfer window they brought in very promising talent in Cristante, Kluivert and have completely acquired Schick. It seems that they are building their team for the long term so I don’t see them winning any trophies for the near future. In this group draw, I see them clinching the second spot despite having lost so many star players

Predicted finish: 2nd

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Lastly, we have Group H:

• Man United

• Valencia

• Young Boys

• Juventus

Finally, it’s time to talk about the group I’m most looking forward to!

Manchester United

Starting off with Manchester United. On paper, they are a team with a extreme amount of talent in almost all positions. Their only true weakness in my opinion is their defense which has been a little unreliable. As I wrote that, I changed my mind of what their current biggest weakness is. At the moment, it seems to be all the drama surrounding their coach Jose Mourinho. A suspected fall out with Paul Pogba has been widely documented. He also seems to have been upset at the fact that he wasn’t granted a new center back as he asked for. United have conceded three goals in both of their last two matches which lead to losses. Whether there actually is a lot going on behind the scenes or not, they need to work through it in order to meet any expectations this year. Nevertheless, I will not discount a club with this much talent. I see them grinding it out for second place but first isn’t far from reach if they work out their problems. Not to mention it’ll be exciting to see Pogba play against his former team Juventus. With Ronaldo also set to meet up with his former club in which he became a superstar. A lot of history and storylines going on here!

Predicted finish: 2nd

Valencia

Many might see Valencia as a easy club to have been drawn with but they couldn’t be more wrong about that. They are a very stubborn side to face that always give their all on the pitch. Their attacking players consist of Gameiro, Batshuayi, Cheryshev and Guedes. Starting to see what I mean? They’re stacked in attack! They just need to build chemistry and figure out a system that puts them in the best position to win games. I have a feeling they might somehow upset Manchester United and click that second spot. Although as I mentioned earlier, with the amount of talent Man. United have I will not mistakenly lower my expectations of them.

Predicted finish: 3rd

Young Boys

As you might also have been thinking, Young Boys is a pretty weird name for a club. It makes me uncomfortable talking about this but the jokes being made are quite funny. Here’s a screenshot of a twitter conversation that made me laugh. (If you don't get the Old Lady part: Juve's nickname is La Vecchia Signora, which is Italian for "The Old Lady".)

Anyways, Young Boys are simply to immature of a group to do anything serious in the UCL (Ok that’s enough jokes). They have been absolutely on fire in the Swiss Super League scoring 16 goals in 5 games. It’s almost as if they acquired the Ronaldo and Messi regens from FIFA 18 career mode for free the way they’re currently scoring. In all reality though, I don’t expect them to do much in the UCL. They play in a really inferior league compared to the rest of Europe. No offense meant by that, it’s just the truth. They will likely place last. Sorry Young Boys, maybe when you get older and have matured you’ll have a chance.

Predicted finish: 4th

Juventus

You all know damn right I saved the best for last. I’ve been waiting all day to get to this point: Juventus. It’s no secret we’re going all out in the Champions League to win that evasive trophy. Bringing in Ronaldo, arguably the best player of our generation and bringing Bonucci back from Milan proves that. We have also reinforced positions of need. We had a major need of a new right back and midfielder. We got Cancelo and Can in both of those positions. With Buffon having left, we purchased Perin to compete for the starting role. Our attacking players depth is just outright ridiculous. We have a really solid defense: two players in each fullback role and a ton of amazing center backs. Our midfield seems to be our weakness if anything but I have a feeling it won’t be much of a problem. I honestly feel like we have the best squad in the world at the moment and a new world class midfielder would have definitely put us over that line. Specially with a world class tactician in Allegri that will get us to achieve our goals. There’s countless reasons to be optimistic this season and Juventus will surely top this group on our way deep into the UCL.

FORZA JUVE! FINO ALLA FINE!

Predicted finish: 1st place and UCL final

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The last part of this post is group power rankings. I based the rankings on the difficulty for the Italian teams to make it into the top 2. Of course this is all in my opinion.

Hardest, #1

Group B

1. Barcelona

2. Tottenham

3. Inter Milan

4. PSV

#2

Group C

1. Liverpool

2. PSG

3. Napoli

4. Crvena Zvezda

#3

Group H

1. Juventus

2. Manchester United

3. Valencia

4. Young Boys

Easiest #4

Group G

1. Real Madrid

2. Roma

3. CSKA Moscow

4. Plzen

All in all, I would really like to be proved wrong by Inter and Napoli. As much as I dislike them, I really want to see Italian clubs be very successful in Europe again. I’m all for Serie A becoming what it once was. Juventus have set the tone the past few years and it was great to see Roma knockout powerhouse Barcelona last season. I wish the best of luck to all Italian teams, that is of course, unless they face us ;).

Thanks for reading!